Emaldo Market Review July: The Swedish Ancillary Services Market

Issue 2 | August 2026

Where we are now

In our June review we promised to cover the latest price movements across FCR, aFRR, and mFRR in Sweden and what they mean for the months ahead. Here is that update. and it brings some encouraging signals alongside continued challenges, with a clearer picture emerging of where revenue opportunities are developing.

FCR: a market that has found its floor

The average price in the FCR-D Up market peaked at 123 euros per megawatt in 2022, only to drop to current levels of approximately 4 euros per megawatt in 2025. FCR-N followed a similar path. FCR-N grew from 10 megawatts of prequalified battery storage capacity to over 130 megawatts in December 2024 alone, a 1,300% increase, with average prices falling from around 120 euros per megawatt in April 2024 to around 20 euros per megawatt from September 2024 onwards.

Svenska Kraftnät's June 2026 monthly price report confirms that FCR prices have remained at these lower levels. At a 5 to 10 year perspective, prices are expected to remain broadly similar to current levels. The FCR gold rush is over, but the FCR markets have not disappeared. They remain a component of a wider revenue strategy, alongside newer and more dynamic markets.

mFRR: an emerging opportunity

The most significant development since our last review is the rapid rise of mFRR. The introduction of a 15-minute Market Time Unit in March 2025 shifted the mFRR Energy Activation Market to a fully automated process, bringing greater volatility and meaningfully higher revenue potential during periods of grid stress.

According to Svenska Kraftnät, the amount of prequalified battery storage on mFRR Up increased from 120 megawatts to 697 megawatts between January and June 2025, with mFRR Down growing at a similar rate. Unlike FCR, mFRR demand has not yet reached its ceiling. Svenska Kraftnät predicts demand will stabilise at around 1,400 megawatts on mFRR Up and 1,200 megawatts on mFRR Down, a significant gap from current levels that is closing rapidly. When mFRR connects to MARI, the pan-European platform for mFRR coordination, Swedish battery assets will also have the opportunity to export capacity to higher-priced markets in continental Europe.

Wholesale trading: the clearest signal of what comes next

The most encouraging development in the Swedish market is the growing role of wholesale energy trading as a battery revenue stream. As ancillary service prices have compressed, the opportunity has not disappeared, it has moved.

On a volatile day in January 2025, day-ahead market trading produced a price spread of approximately 200 euros per megawatt-hour for one Swedish battery portfolio, delivering 118% higher revenues than trading exclusively on FCR-D and 89% higher than FCR-N alone. On that day, 70% of total revenue came from the day-ahead market.

In the most advanced energy markets globally, wholesale markets are expected to account for approximately 60% of revenue streams for batteries. This development implies that market players who optimise across multiple markets simultaneously will be the ones that excel. Sweden is following this trajectory, and the signals from the past two months suggest the transition is accelerating.

What this means for your earnings

The Swedish market is in a genuine transition. FCR revenues remain low, but mFRR is developing as a meaningful complement, and wholesale trading is showing real signs of becoming the most important revenue driver for batteries over the medium term. Current estimates suggest a battery can generate approximately 100,000 euros per megawatt per year through multi-market participation.

Your battery continues to save you money on your electricity bills every day regardless of market conditions, and Emaldo continues to optimise your battery's participation across all available markets to maximise what it earns on your behalf.

Next month

In our next review, we will cover the latest price movements across FCR, mFRR, and aFRR in Sweden for July and August, and what the approach of autumn means for the market outlook.