Emaldo Market Review August: The Finnish Ancillary Services Market

Issue 3 | September 2026 — covering August 2026

Updated 16 September 2026 to reflect revised timelines for mFRR independent aggregation and MARI

Where we are now

Last month's review promised to cover price movements across FCR, aFRR, mFRR, and the intraday market in Finland for August, and whether the start of the autumn demand season is delivering the improvement the seasonal pattern suggests. The direct answer is: not yet. Grid Rewards payouts in Finland have not increased over the past two months, and August continued the pattern of broadly flat to declining revenues for shorter-duration residential batteries.

What the data shows for August

The most recently published Clean Horizon Storage Index data covers July 2026, showing Finland's two-hour battery at 89,000 euros per megawatt per year in June, virtually stable month on month, followed by a further seasonal decline in July consistent with the pattern across all Nordic markets. August continued in a similar vein.

The comparable Clean Horizon data from August 2025 is instructive. In that period, Finnish BESS revenues surged to their highest level in six months, driven by rising FCR-N capacity reservation prices. That August 2025 spike reflected a specific market dynamic that has not been replicated in August 2026. In the current environment, FCR capacity prices have been at substantially lower levels since April 2025, and August 2026 did not produce a comparable recovery. Capacity reservation prices remained broadly flat through the month, and day-ahead spreads continued to reflect the summer seasonal pattern of lower volatility.

FCR: supply-demand imbalance persists

The Finnish FCR market remains structurally oversupplied relative to Fingrid's procurement obligations. Fingrid's 2026 FCR tender confirmed obligations of 126 megawatts for FCR-N, at most 305 megawatts for FCR-D up, and at most 293 megawatts for FCR-D down. Against an installed BESS fleet that has grown to around 1.5 gigawatts, the supply of capacity competing for these fixed procurement volumes is multiples of what the market requires. These dynamics continued through August without material change.

The negative price environment: fewer opportunities this summer

One of the most significant features of the Finnish electricity market through summer 2026 has been the sharp reduction in negative electricity price hours. By June 2026, only 27 negative price hours had been recorded for the year, compared with over 250 in the same period of 2025, driven by better interconnector availability and increased price-responsive curtailment from renewable producers. For batteries, fewer negative price hours means fewer of the most straightforward intraday arbitrage opportunities. August 2026 continued this pattern, with intraday arbitrage opportunities less frequent than in previous summers.

Two important timeline updates

Since this review was first published, we have become aware of two significant developments that affect the outlook for Finnish battery revenues, and we want to correct the record on both.

On independent aggregation in mFRR, our original review referenced a Q4 2026 implementation date. In June 2026, Fingrid asked the Energy Authority to suspend the approval process, having concluded that the compensation model requires legislative amendments to the Electricity Market Act as well as significant further development of IT systems. This is a more fundamental obstacle than a regulatory delay. Legislative processes of this kind in Finland have historically taken two to three years, and there is currently no confirmed replacement timeline. Independent aggregation in mFRR would have allowed aggregators to pool flexible resources from multiple balance responsibilities, widening access to a product whose procurement volumes are still well below FCR-N saturation levels. That improvement is now on hold indefinitely.

On MARI, our original review referenced a Q1 2027 connection date. On 2 September 2026, the Nordic TSOs published an update revising this timeline again, with the most likely timing now September or October 2027. This follows a series of revisions: originally planned for 2026, then Q1 2027, and now autumn 2027. MARI's shared merit order for mFRR scheduled activations would allow Finnish batteries to compete for balancing needs in continental European markets where prices are higher. That opportunity now arrives approximately six to nine months later than we had indicated.

Both developments are genuine setbacks to two of the structural improvements we had cited as reasons for optimism. We want to be straightforward about that. Both remain firmly in the pipeline rather than cancelled, and the underlying market need that drove them has not changed. We will continue to monitor and report on both as they develop.

The autumn outlook

As Finland moves into autumn, electricity demand increases, wind variability resumes, and the combination of higher demand and more variable renewable output tends to widen price spreads and increase the value of both FCR activations and intraday trading. The comparable Clean Horizon September 2025 data showed meaningful revenue recovery from the summer lows as capacity reservation prices rose and day-ahead spreads widened. The structural long-term case for batteries in Finland has not weakened. Fingrid expects the need for reserve capacities to grow by 134% over the next five years. August was the soft part of the annual revenue cycle.

What this means for your earnings

Grid Rewards payouts in Finland have not increased over the past two months. FCR capacity prices remain at lower levels, the reduction in negative electricity price hours has limited intraday arbitrage revenues, and two structural market improvements that we had expected later this year and early next year have been delayed. The seasonal improvement into autumn is expected to provide some uplift, and we will report on that in next month's review.

Emaldo continues to work with our Finnish partners Qurrent and Aire across all available markets to maximise what your battery can earn as the market evolves. Your battery also continues to save you money on your electricity bills every day, providing consistent savings that sit alongside Grid Rewards regardless of ancillary service market conditions.

Next month

In our next review we will cover price movements across FCR, aFRR, mFRR, and the intraday market in Finland for September, and whether the autumn demand season is delivering the revenue improvement that the seasonal pattern and comparable 2025 data suggest it should.