Emaldo Market Review September: The Swedish Ancillary Services Market

Emaldo Market Review: The Swedish Ancillary Services Market

Issue 4 | October 2026, covering September 2026

Where we are now

In last month’s review we said we would look at whether the start of the autumn demand season delivered an improvement in revenues. September brought a small movement in some market indicators but no meaningful change. Prices across the Swedish ancillary services markets have stayed relatively stable at low levels, which is why Grid Rewards payouts have not increased.

September in the numbers

According to Clean Horizon, revenues in Sweden SE3 rose slightly, by 2.9%, in September, with the 2-hour index reaching 142 k€/MW/year. Day-ahead spreads were 32.8% higher and aFRR capacity prices 25.7% higher, partly offset by FCR prices that were 17.8% lower. That remains below June’s level of 164 k€/MW/year for the 2-hour battery, and well below the highs of 2023 and 2024. cleanhorizoncleanhorizon

Part of September’s movement came from a temporary factor. Three nuclear reactors in SE3, roughly 3.3 GW, were offline for maintenance, which made prices swing more between northern hydro prices and gas-set continental prices and widened spreads. As those reactors return, this effect is likely to fade. cleanhorizon

FCR and mFRR: more supply than the grid needs

The capacity markets that matter most for residential batteries did not improve. For 2026, Svenska kraftnät needs 226 MW of FCR-N and up to 547 MW of FCR-D up. Yet by 1 July 2026, 660 MW of energy storage was prequalified for FCR-N and 1,590 MW for FCR-D up. svksvk

mFRR is following the same path. Against a requirement of up to 1,300 MW of mFRR up capacity, energy storage prequalified for mFRR had reached 1,550 MW up and 1,490 MW down. Flower, one of Emaldo’s Swedish partners, expects that prices will not keep falling sharply, but that a new, stabilised pricing level is being established. Behov av reserver idag och i framtiden +2

What is coming next

aFRR was the brightest spot in September, though it is a small market. Svenska kraftnät still plans to connect to the European aFRR platform PICASSO in Q4 2027, though this is stated as a plan rather than a commitment. At connection, aFRR demand is expected to step up to between 120 and 350 MW, from the current 97 and 124 MW. flexnavetflexnavet

The Nordic connection to MARI, the European mFRR platform, has moved later. The Nordic TSOs have postponed their joint connection, and September to October 2027 is now considered the most likely date. sttinfo

Looking further ahead, Clean Horizon found that the average daily spread rose in 2026 in four of the five Nordic zones measured, reaching 121 €/MWh in SE4 and 88 €/MWh in SE3, creating more opportunity for batteries that trade energy. Svenska kraftnät’s Balancing Market Outlook 2030 also expects demand for ancillary services to keep increasing in the coming years, mainly for aFRR and mFRR. cleanhorizonsvk

What this means for your earnings

Grid Rewards payouts in Sweden have not increased. Market indicators moved only slightly in September, partly because of a temporary nuclear outage, while FCR prices fell and mFRR remains heavily supplied.

The longer-term drivers are positive: wider day-ahead spreads, growing demand for aFRR and mFRR, and the planned PICASSO and MARI connections in 2027. Emaldo will keep working with our partners to access the widest possible range of markets, evolve as the market changes, and grow what your battery earns. Your battery also continues to save you money on your electricity bills every day, regardless of ancillary service prices.

Next month

In our next review we will cover price movements across FCR, aFRR, mFRR and day-ahead trading in Sweden for October, the first full month of the heating season.

Price data and market analysis referenced in this review is sourced from the Clean Horizon Storage Index and market analysis (cleanhorizon.com), Svenska kraftnät’s published reserve requirements, prequalified supply data and Balancing Market Outlook 2030 (svk.se), the Nordic TSOs’ MARI timeline announcement, Flower’s market insights (flower.se/insights) and Flexnavet’s Swedish balancing market reference (flexnavet.se).